Diagnostic evaluation with simulated probabilities

As policy makers require more rigorous assessments for the strength of evidence in Theory-Based evaluations, Bayesian logic is attracting increasing interest; however, estimation probabilities that this (almost) inevitably requires presents challenges. Probabilities can be estimated on basis empirical frequencies, but such data are often unavailable most mechanisms objects evaluation. Subjective probability elicitation techniques well established other fields and potentially applicable, they present potential challenges might not always feasible. We introduce community to a third way: simulated probabilities. provide proof concept simulation used estimate diagnostic evaluation illustrate our case with an application health policy.